PhD Scientific Days 2025

Poster Session I. - N: Health Sciences

Long-term Impact of a Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax on Diabetes Burden in Hungary: A Microsimulation Study

Name of the presenter

Muhlis Abdu Nafan Aisul

Institute/workplace of the presenter

Doctoral School of Health Sciences, University of Debrecen

Authors

Abdu Nafan Aisul Muhlis^1,2

1: Doctoral School of Health Sciences, University of Debrecen, Hungary
2: Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, Hungary

Text of the abstract

Introduction: Excess sugar consumption in Europe, including Hungary, exceeds WHO recommendations and contributes to the rising risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). Evaluating the long-term impact of sugar tax policies on DM burden requires robust modelling.
Aims: This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of sugar tax policy in controlling DM burden in Hungary.
Methods: Baseline risk factors were derived from the 2019 European Health Interview Survey (EHIS) using logistic regression. A discrete event microsimulation model projected DM outcomes in Hungary under two scenarios: status quo and a 20% sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax. The model simulated transitions between Healthy, DM, and Death states over a 41-year horizon (to 2060), using R version 4.4.0. Sensitivity analyses were performed using Monte Carlo simulations (1,000 replications), and model validation is conducted by comparing the model output to actual data using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE).
Results: The SSB tax scenario projected an average reduction of 71 (95% UI: 56–85) DM cases annually, equating to 2,853 (95% UI: 2,229–3,417) fewer cases per 100,000 population. The intervention resulted in 8,092 (95% UI: 5,942–10,480) Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) gained annually, totalling 258,956 (95% UI: 190,128–335,367) over the study period. Overall, the diabetes incidence rate declined by 10.12% compared to the baseline.
Conclusion: A 20% SSB tax could substantially reduce Hungary’s diabetes burden over the long term. Combining fiscal measures with physical activity promotion may yield even greater health benefits.
Funding: None.
Keywords: SSB tax, diabetes mellitus, microsimulation